Modelling and forecasting small Haplochromine species (Kambuzi) production in Malaŵi – a stochastic model approach
Abstract
121 words
The study aimed at forecasting small Haplochromine species locally known as Kambuzi yield in Malaŵi, based on data on Lake Malombe fish
catches during the years from 1976 to 2011. The study considered Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) processes to select the appropriate stochastic model for forecasting small Haplochromine species yield in Lake Malombe. Based on
ARIMA (p, d, q) and its components Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (NBIC),
Box – Ljung Q statistics and residuals estimated, ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was selected. Based on the chosen model, it could be predicted that the small
Haplochromine species yield would increase to 4,224 tons in 2021 from 93 tons in 1976.
Subjects
2 categoriesRelated papers
More in Journal articles →- Effect of organic and inorganic fertilisers on natural food composition and performance of African catfish fry produced under artificial propagation
- Population genetics structure of wild and domesticated African catfish (Clarias gariepinus) in Victoria and Albertine Drainage Basins
- Nutritional evaluation of plant ingredients for diets of Tilapia rendalli in NkhataBay, Northern Malawi
- Feeding, reproductive biology and aquaculture potential of Clarias liocephalus in the wetlands of south western Uganda