Assessment of Climate change Impact on Sorghum Productivity in Sudan

Water rather than land is the limiting factor for crop production in Sudan. More than 80 percent of sorghum, which is the major stable food crop in the country, is grown in the rainfed subsector. This paper reports on a study of the impact of climate change on the sorghum production and sorghum productivity in Gedaref region in east Sudan. The climate change analysis included calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), rainy days and rainfall amount and distribution. For the crop analysis, area cultivated, area harvested and the grain yield for the period 1971-2008 were used. The drought index showed that there was moderate to extreme drought events during the period 1983- 2008. There was also evidence that the length of the growing season also became short (less than two months). While there was drastic change in both rainfall amount and distribution, rainfall occurred mostly during end of July and August. Crop data analysis indicated that the sorghum productivity (kg/ha) significantly declined (6%- 52%) from 1981 to 2008 and also showed that 20% reduction in annual rainfall reduced the sorghum production by up to 25%. The relation between the drought index and the crop parameters indicated that there was strong correlation with crop productivity. The above result indicates that Gedaref region had witnessed a significant decline in crop productivity due to decline in rainfall and persistent drought.