The potential of incorporation of forecasting using time series data into fisheries management in Malawi: Case of management of Oreochromis species of Lake Malawi

The Chambo fishery has been reported to be declining over the years to the levels that strategies were put in place to restore the fishery by the government and other stakeholders. The effectiveness of these strategies in restoring the chambo fishery in Lake Malawi in Mangochi District has to be quantified and calls for proper adjustments be made to achieve the goal of restoring the fishery. This study aimed at modelling and forecasting Oreochromis species (Chambo) yield from artisanal fishery on Lake Malawi in Mangochi District using fish landings data from 1976 to 2012 from the Department of Fisheries in Malawi. The study employed Holt’s exponential smoothing model to forecasts the landings from 2013 through 2022. Several diagnostic techniques were employed to validate the generated model, the one that best suited the data was used in the forecasting. The future forecast of the landings showed a mean of -333.981 tonnes (with confidence intervals of 80% and 95%), implying that the fishery would have collapsed. The forecast also showed that in the year 2022 the fishery will have completely collapsed from 1940.08 tonnes in the year 2010 as shown by the negative forecasted fish landings (-1458.30 tonnes) with confidence intervals of 80% and 95% and included a zero (0). These results are clearly demonstrating that the artisanal fishery in focus will completely get collapsed by 2017 despite several management strategies on Chambo that have been implemented on Lake Malawi. The forecast also shows that these strategies had limited impact on restoring the fishery. The current fisheries management system on Lake Malawi is species-specific and most of these management systems were crafted around management of Chambo fishery. This has unfortunately not worked as envisaged. This forecast strongly calls for revisiting of the fisheries management in this area so as to restore this fishery.