Predicting potential distribution of the coconut whitefly in Mozambique based on ecological niche modeling tool

The coconut (Cocos nucifera) whiteûy (Aleurotrachelus atratus), native to Central America has been recorded in various countries in Africa. In Mozambique, the coconut whitefly was reported for the first time in Maputo in 2010. However, there has been no information regarding its status and distribution in Mozambique. Therefore, we conducted the present study to predict its potential distribution within the country. A field survey was conducted in Inhambane province for determination of species prevalence and level of infestation. Potential distribution was estimated by ecological niche modelling Tool using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) to identify areas that have similar environmental conditions (bioclimatic variables) to the areas of confirmed occurrence. The coconut whitefly, A. atratus, was the only species identified infesting coconut tress in the area of study. The species occurs at high levels of infestation (98.8% of plant infestation and 72.8 % of severity) and at population densities of 205 pupae/leaflet. The ecological niche model predicted higher suitability in the coastal area of Mozambique and some potentially suitable areas around Manica province with the rest of the country being not climatically suitable. In light of this study, surveys should be conducted to verify the predicted distribution, pest status and implementation of management strategies.