Working Document Series Open Access 2010 RUF-34775

Assessment of spatio-temporal redistribution of major crops and livestock mobility due to climate change and variability in Uganda

L. AriboP. IsubikaluE. KomutungaJ.G.M. MajaliwaH. Makuma-MassaP. MukwayaC. NandoziS. Tumuhairwe

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Abstract

192 words

Considering how climate will change over the years offer important insight into how the challenges as result of climate change (CC) and variability can be responded to. Modeling and descriptive studies are being conducted in Uganda to generate information to guide activities geared towards building resilience of agro-pastoralist communities in adapting to and mitigating present and future climate change and variability impacts. Specifically, the study is assessing the performance of different global climate models (GCMs) in the MAGICC/ Scengen tool with the view to obtain the best combination to be used for downscaling and projecting climate change and variability in Uganda, document the past and current responses in most vulnerable farming communities’ and to identify the appropriate adjustments to cope with climate related stress. Modeling, focus group discussions and individual interviewing were the main data collection methods used. Data collected were subjected to reduction and development of themes for analysis. The preliminary results show ECHO-G and UKHADCM3 as the best projectors of climate change and variability in Uganda. Furthermore analysis is required to project the likely redistribution of major crops and map the potential pastoral migratory routes under different climate change scenarios.

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