Working Document Series Open Access 2012 RUF-32864

Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Rainfed Sorghum Productivity in Central Tanzania

N. KihupiB. MsongaleliF.B.R. RwehumbizaS.D. Tumbo

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Abstract

134 words

The central regions of the country stretching from Dodoma to Mwanza account for three-quarters of Tanzania’s 500,000 to 800,000 ton annual sorghum harvest. The zone is one of the most sensitive to climate variability and change mainly owing to temperature and rainfall variability. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of rainfall in the zone have changed. One of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of the climate variability and change is the increase in prolonged dry spells. In Tanzania, dry spells have led to crop failures especially maize. In this study, an attempt was made to estimate climate change impacts on crop yields in the zone through developing a simulation framework using DSSAT as a tool for assessing the impact of variability and changes in rainfall, temperature and evapo-transpiration.

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