Mainstreaming seed demand forecasting in the agenda of private and public sector seed actors

In Mali, the total area planted annually to rice was estimated at 900,939 hectares in the cropping season 2015/2016. Five different rice production systems share this area as follows: uncontrolled flooding (31.6%), lowland rice (25.3%), irrigated rice (21.9%), controlled flooding (13.3%), and rain-fed upland rice (7.9%). The total seed requirement for these areas is not well documented and so are the total breeder seed and foundation seed needs per year. Likewise, the potential financial contribution of this seed to the country’s economy is not well known. In the present research, the authors developed the concepts of “Theoretical Seed Demand” and “Practical Seed Demand” and propose a user friendly methodology for an easy estimation. “Theoretical Seed Demand” is defined as those quantities of seed used annually, originating mainly from the informal systems and, to a smaller extent, from the formal system. “Practical Seed Demand” are in turn defined as those quantities of seed originating exclusively from the formal system and that are of interest to the private sector (seed companies and / or seed cooperatives). It is expected that the developed approach would facilitate seed need forecasting, the development of seed road maps and business plans for seed entrepreneurs, the planning of seed production and commercialization in the country, and pave the way towards the emergence of a high performing and sustainable seed industry.